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Using variables like player age can give us an advantage when attempting to predict the future of a player. With dynasty leagues growing in popularity, making the correct prediction for a player’s peak is important. In this article, we’ll determine the peak age for an NFL tight end.

Most players in the same position share similar career timelines. By examining the careers of tight ends, we can gain knowledge as to when players at the position should improve or regress. At a position that is infamous for having players need a year or two extra to transition from college to the NFL, we may find that predicting tight end peaks is different than other positions.

You can see what the peak ages are for wide receivers and running backs. We update these studies each offseason with the current trends of active players.

Defining A Peak Tight End Season

To begin the study, we must define a peak season for an NFL tight end. What is the production necessary for a tight end to consider him at the peak of his career?

Last year only the top five tight ends scored more than 170 PPR fantasy points. Generally, scoring 170 PPR fantasy points is a very good tight end season. We’ll use that threshold for our peak season.

Our peak seasons will include all tight end seasons that finished with at least 170 PPR fantasy points since 2000. This gives us a sample size of 138 players. The list below includes all individual tight end seasons to meet the criteria and was generated by Pro Football Reference.

The average age of the peak season is 27.49 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the tight end seasons:

The peak is from 25 to 27 years old, as 42.11 percent of the seasons fall within that range. We can expand that peak from 25 to 30 years old, 68.1 percent of the seasons fall within that range.

As you can see from the distribution graph, tight ends generally take a few years to develop. While just 19 total peak seasons took place before a tight end turns 25, 25-year-old tight ends accounted for 24 of the peak seasons.

In addition, more tight ends have achieved a peak season at 31 years old than at 24 years old. We can only speculate the reasoning for that, but clearly, it takes some time for tight ends to develop in the NFL.

There’s a gradual decline that takes place after age 30, but the big drop-off is after the age 31 season. 88.4 percent of the peak seasons take place prior to the age 32 season. The career age timeline of a tight end is similar to a wide receiver.

What does this mean for the 2023 season?

In 2022, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Evan Engram made the list.

Kelce continues to produce at a historically impressive level. Like Jerry Rice or Tom Brady, he’s more likely the exception to the rule as a statistical anomaly than a player that should be followed for expected production at a specific age. Players like Kelce or Gronk can defy age – but with each year of production, he’s more likely to fall off the following season. Kelce will be 34 this season, 94.9 percent of peak tight end seasons have taken place before turning 34 years old.

Hockenson (26 this upcoming season), Kittle (30), Andrews (28), and Engram (29) all remain safely in their peak age prime. While it’s better to be in the mid-twenties (25-28), it’s unlikely that there’s a huge drop-off in talent.

Rookie Kyle Pitts became the first 21-year-old tight end to make the list. Unfortunately, he was unable to make the list again as a sophomore, only playing 10 games in an injury-shortened season. As a top-tier talent, Pitts should be expected to make his return to this list in the coming seasons.