Ahh, the majestic 100+ reception and the 10+ touchdown season- numbers sought after by every wide receiver in the NFL and fantasy football owner in North America. Just one extra digit seems to make things look a whole lot better, doesn’t it? After pondering what it took to rush for 20 touchdowns in a season, I set my sights on wide receivers and the mysteries behind 100+ reception and 10+ TD seasons. In arguably the most data-centric piece I’ve yet to author, I think you’ll find some interesting trends and conclusions.
First, I’ll share with you the data I compiled from the fantastic “Season Finder” on ProFootballReference.com. Here is every receiver from 2003-2013 who had 100+ receptions:
Player | Year | Age | Ht ▾ | Wt | G | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andre Johnson | 2013 | 32 | 6'3" | 219 | 16 | 109 | 1407 | 12.91 | 5 | 87.9 |
Antonio Brown | 2013 | 25 | 5'10" | 180 | 16 | 110 | 1499 | 13.63 | 8 | 93.7 |
Brandon Marshall | 2013 | 29 | 6'4" | 229 | 16 | 100 | 1295 | 12.95 | 12 | 80.9 |
Julian Edelman | 2013 | 27 | 6'0" | 198 | 16 | 105 | 1056 | 10.06 | 6 | 66 |
Pierre Garcon | 2013 | 27 | 6'0" | 210 | 16 | 113 | 1346 | 11.91 | 5 | 84.1 |
Andre Johnson | 2012 | 31 | 6'3" | 219 | 16 | 112 | 1598 | 14.27 | 4 | 99.9 |
Brandon Marshall | 2012 | 28 | 6'4" | 229 | 16 | 118 | 1508 | 12.78 | 11 | 94.3 |
Calvin Johnson | 2012 | 27 | 6'5" | 239 | 16 | 122 | 1964 | 16.1 | 5 | 122.8 |
Reggie Wayne | 2012 | 34 | 6'0" | 198 | 16 | 106 | 1355 | 12.78 | 5 | 84.7 |
Wes Welker | 2012 | 31 | 5'9" | 190 | 16 | 118 | 1354 | 11.47 | 6 | 84.6 |
Roddy White | 2011 | 30 | 6'1" | 201 | 16 | 100 | 1296 | 12.96 | 8 | 81 |
Wes Welker | 2011 | 30 | 5'9" | 190 | 16 | 122 | 1569 | 12.86 | 9 | 98.1 |
Reggie Wayne | 2010 | 32 | 6'0" | 198 | 16 | 111 | 1355 | 12.21 | 6 | 84.7 |
Roddy White | 2010 | 29 | 6'1" | 201 | 16 | 115 | 1389 | 12.08 | 10 | 86.8 |
Andre Johnson | 2009 | 28 | 6'3" | 219 | 16 | 101 | 1569 | 15.53 | 9 | 98.1 |
Brandon Marshall | 2009 | 25 | 6'4" | 229 | 15 | 101 | 1120 | 11.09 | 10 | 74.7 |
Reggie Wayne | 2009 | 31 | 6'0" | 198 | 16 | 100 | 1264 | 12.64 | 10 | 79 |
Steve Smith | 2009 | 24 | 6'0" | 195 | 16 | 107 | 1220 | 11.4 | 7 | 76.3 |
Wes Welker | 2009 | 28 | 5'9" | 190 | 14 | 123 | 1348 | 10.96 | 4 | 96.3 |
Andre Johnson | 2008 | 27 | 6'3" | 219 | 16 | 115 | 1575 | 13.7 | 8 | 98.4 |
Brandon Marshall | 2008 | 24 | 6'4" | 229 | 15 | 104 | 1265 | 12.16 | 6 | 84.3 |
Wes Welker | 2008 | 27 | 5'9" | 190 | 16 | 111 | 1165 | 10.5 | 3 | 72.8 |
Brandon Marshall | 2007 | 23 | 6'4" | 229 | 16 | 102 | 1325 | 12.99 | 7 | 82.8 |
Derrick Mason | 2007 | 33 | 5'10" | 190 | 16 | 103 | 1087 | 10.55 | 5 | 67.9 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2007 | 24 | 6'3" | 225 | 15 | 100 | 1409 | 14.09 | 10 | 93.9 |
Reggie Wayne | 2007 | 29 | 6'0" | 198 | 16 | 104 | 1510 | 14.52 | 10 | 94.4 |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2007 | 30 | 6'1" | 197 | 16 | 112 | 1143 | 10.21 | 12 | 71.4 |
Wes Welker | 2007 | 26 | 5'9" | 190 | 16 | 112 | 1175 | 10.49 | 8 | 73.4 |
Andre Johnson | 2006 | 25 | 6'3" | 219 | 16 | 103 | 1147 | 11.14 | 5 | 71.7 |
Anquan Boldin | 2005 | 25 | 6'1" | 218 | 14 | 102 | 1402 | 13.75 | 7 | 100.1 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2005 | 22 | 6'3" | 225 | 16 | 103 | 1409 | 13.68 | 10 | 88.1 |
Steve Smith | 2005 | 26 | 5'9" | 185 | 16 | 103 | 1563 | 15.17 | 12 | 97.7 |
Torry Holt | 2005 | 29 | 6'0" | 190 | 14 | 102 | 1331 | 13.05 | 9 | 95.1 |
Anquan Boldin | 2003 | 23 | 6'1" | 218 | 16 | 101 | 1377 | 13.63 | 8 | 86.1 |
Randy Moss | 2003 | 26 | 6'4" | 215 | 16 | 111 | 1632 | 14.7 | 17 | 102 |
Torry Holt | 2003 | 27 | 6'0" | 190 | 16 | 117 | 1696 | 14.5 | 12 | 106 |
Average | 27.61 | 6'3" | 207 | 15.75 | 108.28 | 1381.2 | 12.76 | 8 | 87.78 |
In total, 17 different players compiled 36 different 100+ reception seasons from 2003-2013. Now, we’ll take a look at every 10+ TD season from 2003-2013:
Player | Year | Age | Ht ▾ | Wt | G | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wes Welker | 2013 | 32 | 5'9" | 190 | 13 | 73 | 778 | 10.66 | 10 | 59.8 |
Marvin Jones | 2013 | 23 | 6'1" | 199 | 16 | 51 | 712 | 13.96 | 10 | 44.5 |
Jerricho Cotchery | 2013 | 31 | 6'1" | 200 | 16 | 46 | 602 | 13.09 | 10 | 37.6 |
Dez Bryant | 2013 | 25 | 6'2" | 225 | 16 | 93 | 1233 | 13.26 | 13 | 77.1 |
Demaryius Thomas | 2013 | 26 | 6'3" | 229 | 16 | 92 | 1430 | 15.54 | 14 | 89.4 |
Eric Decker | 2013 | 26 | 6'3" | 206 | 16 | 87 | 1288 | 14.8 | 11 | 80.5 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2013 | 30 | 6'3" | 225 | 16 | 82 | 954 | 11.63 | 10 | 59.6 |
A.J. Green | 2013 | 25 | 6'4" | 205 | 16 | 98 | 1426 | 14.55 | 11 | 89.1 |
Brandon Marshall | 2013 | 29 | 6'4" | 229 | 16 | 100 | 1295 | 12.95 | 12 | 80.9 |
Calvin Johnson | 2013 | 28 | 6'5" | 239 | 14 | 84 | 1492 | 17.76 | 12 | 106.6 |
Victor Cruz | 2012 | 26 | 6'0" | 204 | 16 | 86 | 1092 | 12.7 | 10 | 68.3 |
James Jones | 2012 | 28 | 6'1" | 208 | 16 | 64 | 784 | 12.25 | 14 | 49 |
Dez Bryant | 2012 | 24 | 6'2" | 225 | 16 | 92 | 1382 | 15.02 | 12 | 86.4 |
Demaryius Thomas | 2012 | 25 | 6'3" | 229 | 16 | 94 | 1434 | 15.26 | 10 | 89.6 |
Eric Decker | 2012 | 25 | 6'3" | 206 | 16 | 85 | 1064 | 12.52 | 13 | 66.5 |
Brandon Marshall | 2012 | 28 | 6'4" | 229 | 16 | 118 | 1508 | 12.78 | 11 | 94.3 |
A.J. Green | 2012 | 24 | 6'4" | 205 | 16 | 97 | 1350 | 13.92 | 11 | 84.4 |
Julio Jones | 2012 | 23 | 6'3" | 220 | 16 | 79 | 1198 | 15.16 | 10 | 74.9 |
Marques Colston | 2012 | 29 | 6'4" | 225 | 16 | 83 | 1154 | 13.9 | 10 | 72.1 |
Laurent Robinson | 2011 | 26 | 6'2" | 192 | 14 | 54 | 858 | 15.89 | 11 | 61.3 |
Jordy Nelson | 2011 | 26 | 6'3" | 215 | 16 | 68 | 1263 | 18.57 | 15 | 78.9 |
Calvin Johnson | 2011 | 26 | 6'5" | 239 | 16 | 96 | 1681 | 17.51 | 16 | 105.1 |
Greg Jennings | 2010 | 27 | 5'11" | 195 | 16 | 76 | 1265 | 16.64 | 12 | 79.1 |
Brandon Lloyd | 2010 | 29 | 6'0" | 192 | 16 | 77 | 1448 | 18.81 | 11 | 90.5 |
Mike Wallace | 2010 | 24 | 6'0" | 180 | 16 | 60 | 1257 | 20.95 | 10 | 78.6 |
Hakeem Nicks | 2010 | 22 | 6'0" | 210 | 13 | 79 | 1052 | 13.32 | 11 | 80.9 |
Jeremy Maclin | 2010 | 22 | 6'0" | 200 | 16 | 70 | 964 | 13.77 | 10 | 60.3 |
Roddy White | 2010 | 29 | 6'1" | 201 | 16 | 115 | 1389 | 12.08 | 10 | 86.8 |
Dwayne Bowe | 2010 | 26 | 6'2" | 221 | 16 | 72 | 1162 | 16.14 | 15 | 72.6 |
Steve Johnson | 2010 | 24 | 6'2" | 210 | 16 | 82 | 1073 | 13.09 | 10 | 67.1 |
Mike Williams | 2010 | 23 | 6'2" | 204 | 16 | 65 | 964 | 14.83 | 11 | 60.3 |
Calvin Johnson | 2010 | 25 | 6'5" | 239 | 15 | 77 | 1120 | 14.55 | 12 | 74.7 |
Reggie Wayne | 2009 | 31 | 6'0" | 198 | 16 | 100 | 1264 | 12.64 | 10 | 79 |
Roddy White | 2009 | 28 | 6'1" | 201 | 16 | 85 | 1153 | 13.56 | 11 | 72.1 |
Miles Austin | 2009 | 25 | 6'3" | 215 | 16 | 81 | 1320 | 16.3 | 11 | 82.5 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2009 | 26 | 6'3" | 225 | 16 | 97 | 1092 | 11.26 | 13 | 68.3 |
Randy Moss | 2009 | 32 | 6'4" | 215 | 16 | 83 | 1264 | 15.23 | 13 | 79 |
Brandon Marshall | 2009 | 25 | 6'4" | 229 | 15 | 101 | 1120 | 11.09 | 10 | 74.7 |
Lance Moore | 2008 | 25 | 5'9" | 177 | 16 | 79 | 928 | 11.75 | 10 | 58 |
Anquan Boldin | 2008 | 28 | 6'1" | 218 | 12 | 89 | 1038 | 11.66 | 11 | 86.5 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2008 | 25 | 6'3" | 225 | 16 | 96 | 1431 | 14.91 | 12 | 89.4 |
Terrell Owens | 2008 | 35 | 6'3" | 226 | 16 | 69 | 1052 | 15.25 | 10 | 65.8 |
Randy Moss | 2008 | 31 | 6'4" | 215 | 16 | 69 | 1008 | 14.61 | 11 | 63 |
Calvin Johnson | 2008 | 23 | 6'5" | 239 | 16 | 78 | 1331 | 17.06 | 12 | 83.2 |
Greg Jennings | 2007 | 24 | 5'11" | 195 | 13 | 53 | 920 | 17.36 | 12 | 70.8 |
Reggie Wayne | 2007 | 29 | 6'0" | 198 | 16 | 104 | 1510 | 14.52 | 10 | 94.4 |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2007 | 30 | 6'1" | 197 | 16 | 112 | 1143 | 10.21 | 12 | 71.4 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2007 | 24 | 6'3" | 225 | 15 | 100 | 1409 | 14.09 | 10 | 93.9 |
Terrell Owens | 2007 | 34 | 6'3" | 226 | 15 | 81 | 1355 | 16.73 | 15 | 90.3 |
Braylon Edwards | 2007 | 24 | 6'3" | 211 | 16 | 80 | 1289 | 16.11 | 16 | 80.6 |
Randy Moss | 2007 | 30 | 6'4" | 215 | 16 | 98 | 1493 | 15.23 | 23 | 93.3 |
Marques Colston | 2007 | 24 | 6'4" | 225 | 16 | 98 | 1202 | 12.27 | 11 | 75.1 |
Reggie Williams | 2007 | 24 | 6'4" | 225 | 15 | 38 | 629 | 16.55 | 10 | 41.9 |
Plaxico Burress | 2007 | 30 | 6'5" | 226 | 16 | 70 | 1025 | 14.64 | 12 | 64.1 |
Marvin Harrison | 2006 | 34 | 6'0" | 175 | 16 | 95 | 1366 | 14.38 | 12 | 85.4 |
Torry Holt | 2006 | 30 | 6'0" | 190 | 16 | 93 | 1188 | 12.77 | 10 | 74.3 |
Darrell Jackson | 2006 | 28 | 6'0" | 201 | 13 | 63 | 956 | 15.17 | 10 | 73.5 |
Terrell Owens | 2006 | 33 | 6'3" | 226 | 16 | 85 | 1180 | 13.88 | 13 | 73.8 |
Plaxico Burress | 2006 | 29 | 6'5" | 226 | 15 | 63 | 988 | 15.68 | 10 | 65.9 |
Joey Galloway | 2005 | 34 | 5'11" | 197 | 16 | 83 | 1287 | 15.51 | 10 | 80.4 |
Chris Chambers | 2005 | 27 | 5'11" | 210 | 16 | 82 | 1118 | 13.63 | 11 | 69.9 |
Steve Smith | 2005 | 26 | 5'9" | 185 | 16 | 103 | 1563 | 15.17 | 12 | 97.7 |
Marvin Harrison | 2005 | 33 | 6'0" | 175 | 15 | 82 | 1146 | 13.98 | 12 | 76.4 |
Hines Ward | 2005 | 29 | 6'0" | 205 | 15 | 69 | 975 | 14.13 | 11 | 65 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2005 | 22 | 6'3" | 225 | 16 | 103 | 1409 | 13.68 | 10 | 88.1 |
Joe Jurevicius | 2005 | 31 | 6'5" | 230 | 16 | 55 | 694 | 12.62 | 10 | 43.4 |
Brandon Stokley | 2004 | 28 | 5'11" | 197 | 16 | 68 | 1077 | 15.84 | 10 | 67.3 |
Torry Holt | 2004 | 28 | 6'0" | 190 | 16 | 94 | 1372 | 14.6 | 10 | 85.8 |
Reggie Wayne | 2004 | 26 | 6'0" | 198 | 16 | 77 | 1210 | 15.71 | 12 | 75.6 |
Marvin Harrison | 2004 | 32 | 6'0" | 175 | 16 | 86 | 1113 | 12.94 | 15 | 69.6 |
Joe Horn | 2004 | 32 | 6'1" | 206 | 16 | 94 | 1399 | 14.88 | 11 | 87.4 |
Muhsin Muhammad | 2004 | 31 | 6'2" | 217 | 16 | 93 | 1405 | 15.11 | 16 | 87.8 |
Javon Walker | 2004 | 26 | 6'3" | 220 | 16 | 89 | 1382 | 15.53 | 12 | 86.4 |
Terrell Owens | 2004 | 31 | 6'3" | 226 | 14 | 77 | 1200 | 15.58 | 14 | 85.7 |
Randy Moss | 2004 | 27 | 6'4" | 215 | 13 | 49 | 767 | 15.65 | 13 | 59 |
Drew Bennett | 2004 | 26 | 6'5" | 206 | 16 | 80 | 1247 | 15.59 | 11 | 77.9 |
Santana Moss | 2003 | 24 | 5'10" | 185 | 16 | 74 | 1105 | 14.93 | 10 | 69.1 |
Chris Chambers | 2003 | 25 | 5'11" | 210 | 16 | 64 | 963 | 15.05 | 11 | 60.2 |
Torry Holt | 2003 | 27 | 6'0" | 190 | 16 | 117 | 1696 | 14.5 | 12 | 106 |
Marvin Harrison | 2003 | 31 | 6'0" | 175 | 15 | 94 | 1272 | 13.53 | 10 | 84.8 |
Hines Ward | 2003 | 27 | 6'0" | 205 | 16 | 95 | 1163 | 12.24 | 10 | 72.7 |
Chad Johnson | 2003 | 25 | 6'1" | 192 | 16 | 90 | 1355 | 15.06 | 10 | 84.7 |
Joe Horn | 2003 | 31 | 6'1" | 206 | 15 | 78 | 973 | 12.47 | 10 | 64.9 |
Randy Moss | 2003 | 26 | 6'4" | 215 | 16 | 111 | 1632 | 14.7 | 17 | 102 |
Average | 27.4 | 6'2" | 209.5 | 15.58 | 82.88 | 1188.68 | 14.47 | 11.64 | 76.28 |
50 different players compiled 84 different 10+ receiving touchdown seasons from 2003-2013. Now that the boring ol’ table data is out of the way, let’s delve into the good stuff: number-crunching and analysis.
But before we begin, a quick author’s note:
- To reiterate: all of these statistics are from 2003-2013. 17 different players accounted for those 36 100+ catch seasons, and 50 different players accounted for the 84 10+ TD seasons during that timespan.
- Unless otherwise noted, the percentages are out of 84 and 36 for the number of different 10+ TD and 100+ catch seasons (respectively), not out of the 50 and 17 different players who accomplished these feats from 2003-2013. In parentheses, I will give you the specific amount of unique players for each statistic I deem relevant. Let’s roll:
Weight
- 47% of 100+ catch seasons (9/17 different players) were by players under 200 lbs. Smaller players are more likely to win underneath with a low aDOT (average depth of target), and have trouble winning jump balls downfield and in the end-zone.
- Size matters for TDs: Only 27% of 10+ TD seasons (16/50 different players) were by players under 200lbs. For 11 out of those 16 sub-200lb players, it was their only time catching 10+ TDs in their careers. Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison (both under 200lbs) are the only reason that percentage isn’t much lower. As always, leave it to Peyton Manning to skew the data.
Height
- 61% of 100+ catch seasons (12/17 different players) were by receivers 6’1″ or under. Again, likely due to small players being more effective underneath on shorter, more frequent throws.
- However, only 46% of 10+ TD seasons (26/50 different players) were by receivers 6’1″ or under. Of those 26 qualifying players, 17 of them (65%) were one-hit wonder 10+ TD receivers, never doing it before or since.
- Of the 10+ TD seasons accomplished by receivers 6’3” or taller, only 21% were one-hit wonders. That means 6’3” or taller receivers are 220% more likely to have multiple 10+ TD seasons than 6’1” and under receivers.
Fantasy Scoring (PPR)
- 94% of 100+ catch seasons have been top-12 PPR receivers in their respective years. The only two that weren’t (Derrick Mason and Julian Edelman) finished 14th.
- A lesser (but still good) 76% of 10+ TD seasons were top 12. If a receiver catches 10+ TDs, he’ll probably be a WR1. If he has 100+ catches, he almost certainly will.
- 33% of 100+ catch seasons have resulted in 10+ TDs. On the other hand, only 14% of 10+ TD seasons result in 100+ catches.
Yardage and TD Frequency
- 44% of 100+ catch seasons resulted in 7 TDs or less- likely due to the height and weight of many of these players. Ironically, the only time 100+ catch stud Wes Welker caught 10+ TDs was in 2013- on a mere 73 receptions.
- On the bright side, high volume receivers make their fantasy money on catches and yards. Only 19% of 100+ catch guys had less than 1,200 yards, and none under 1,056.
- However, a whopping 50% of 10+ TD guys were under 1,200 yards, and 21% under 1,000. Oddly enough, all of the first-time 10+ TD guys in 2013 (Wes Welker, Marvin Jones, and Jerricho Cotchery) fit into that 21%.
Year-to-Year Consistency
- 36% of 10+ TD catch seasons (30/50 different players) were one-hit wonders- they never did it before or after in their career. Only Jones, Cotchery and Welker were first timers in 2013 (all decent candidates to join the one-hit wonder club). Notable recent one-hit wonders that have a very good chance of catching 10+ again are Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson. Both have the height, weight, and opportunity to do so.
- Only 22% of 100+ catch seasons (8/17 different players) were one-hit wonders. Out of those eight, I’m going to mention four: Three of them are Pierre Garcon, Julian Edelman, and Antonio Brown- all of whom caught 100+ for the first time in 2013. The fourth is Calvin Johnson. Given that 78% of 100+ catch seasons are done by repeat offenders, odds are at least one of Brown, Edelman or Garcon catches 100+ again. Possibly just Brown, but it’s still worth mentioning. As far as Calvin goes, he’s such a stud in yards and TDs that you could argue 100+ catches is just icing on the cake.
Takeaways for 2014:
- If you think a guy has a shot at 100+ catches, he’s likely worth a top-30 pick.
- Don’t count on receivers under 6’2” or under 200 lbs. to repeat double-digit TD seasons. Keep that in mind when you want to draft Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Jeremy Maclin or Mike Wallace.
- Less than one fifth of 10+ TD seasons occurred when the player had under 1,000 receiving yards. Don’t go chasing guys who you think will have 10+ TDs without 1,000 yards. It’s unlikely to happen.
- Don’t be scared of a high-volume receiver who won’t contend for the league lead in TDs. Nearly half don’t even reach 8, but 94% of 100+ catch guys have been WR1s.
- If a receiver is big (6’3” or over) and he’s caught 10+ TD passes, there’s a very high probability he’ll do it again sometime in his career. This helps explain why only 20/50 different players caught 10+ TDs multiple times, but accounted for 64% of the 10+ TD seasons. Don’t be as scared of TD regression in big receivers.
- Two-thirds of the time, WR1 seasons feature 100+ catches, 10+ TDs or both. If you draft a guy whom you don’t project has a shot at either of those, you’re getting only a 33% chance of him being a WR1 according to the trends of the past decade.
- Here are the guys with an ADP in the top-72 who I don’t think have a great chance at 100+ catches or 10+ TDs: Vincent Jackson (he’s never done either, high aDOT, possibly limited targets), Victor Cruz (size), Wes Welker (limited targets, concussion history, size), Percy Harvin (limited targets), Cordarrelle Patterson (don’t even get me started), DeSean Jackson (limited targets, high aDOT, size), and T.Y. Hilton (limited targets, high aDOT, size). I actually like some of these guys, but I think that expecting WR1 upside out of any of them is a fool’s errand.